ARI Public Lecture: Institutional Continuity and Incremental Change: Models of Economic Development in Post-Intervention Societies

The economic transition in Afghanistan in 2001 was marked by institutional discontinuity, with decision-makers regarding Afghanistan as a 'clean slate' and ignoring its economic and institutional legacies. Contrary to successful development models thus far, where state support for markets, industrial policy, and institutional continuity has been essential, Afghanistan adopted a market-led, enabler-state framework radically departing from the past, heavily influenced by neoliberal ideology and donor-driven aspirations. This shift ignored deeply ingrained public expectations of state economic roles, the absence of pre-existing market mechanisms, and the strong legacy of dirigisme. The imposed model disrupted and antagonised existing structures without fostering a coherent economic governance system. Historical comparisons suggest that incremental institutional change is required for a sustainable development framework.

This lecture explores how these factors, compounded by corruption, insecurity, and fragility, led to suboptimal economic performance and policy failures.

About Speaker

Dr Lutfi Rahimi is a Non-Resident Research Fellow at ARI. He previously served as Head of Research at Biruni Institute, Senior Policy Advisor to Afghanistan's Ministry of Economy, Economic Consultant with the World Bank, and Assistant Professor at AUAF. Holding a PhD and MSc in Economics from the University of Exeter and a BSc from the University of Essex, his interests lie in applied microeconomics and development economics. His past project with ARI assessed the middle class in Kabul, while his current research examines the role of institutions in economic frameworks in post-intervention societies, focusing on Afghanistan. He resides in the UK.

About Discussant

Professor Michael Cox, a former Chair in International Relations at the London School of Economics, was co-founder of LSE IDEAS, which in 2019 was recognized as the best university-affiliated think tank globally. He is on the Advisory Board of LSE IDEAS and serves as Senior Academic Adviser to its China Foresight Forum. A visiting professor at the Catholic University of Milan and Université Libre de Bruxelles, he is also an Associate Fellow at Chatham House. Professor Cox has authored several books, including "Afghanistan: Long War; Forgotten Peace" and co-edited "US Foreign Policy," with a 4th edition forthcoming in 2025 from Oxford University Press.

Moderator: Dr Bohdan Krawchenko Director of Afghanistan Research Initiative, Senior Research Fellow, Graduate School of Development, University of Central Asia

Date and time: 24 April 2025, 16:30 Bishkek time, 11:30 UK time
Format: Online
Language: English
Zoom link: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/85086765182?pwd=qXilLvrUWLfDaNxzMDdy4oOaOPa8yP.1 
Passcode:716676

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